Key Points
- NFL odds come in three main formats: spread, moneyline, and total (over/under).
- Negative odds (-110) indicate a favorite; positive odds (+130) indicate an underdog.
- -110 means bet $110 to win $100. The extra $10 is the sportsbook's cut.
- The point spread levels the playing field between mismatched teams.
- Implied probability converts any odds into a percentage chance of winning.
Understanding NFL Betting Odds
Every NFL game offers three core markets: the point spread, the moneyline, and the total. Here's how to read each one.
American Odds Explained
NFL odds are presented in American format. The key rule:
- Negative number (e.g., -110): You are betting on the favorite. You bet that amount to win $100.
- Positive number (e.g., +130): You are betting on the underdog. A $100 bet wins that amount.
The Point Spread
The spread is the most popular NFL betting market. Example:
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders +7
The Chiefs are favored by 7 points. For a Chiefs bet to win, they must win by more than 7 points. A Chiefs win by exactly 7 is a push (refund). The Raiders bet wins if they win outright or lose by 6 or fewer.
Both sides are typically priced at -110, which means you bet $110 to win $100. That extra $10 is the sportsbook's commission (the vig or juice).
The Moneyline
The moneyline is simply picking who wins with no spread. Example:
Chiefs -250 vs. Raiders +210
A $100 bet on the Raiders (+210) wins $210. A bet on the Chiefs requires risking $250 to win $100.
Moneylines on clear favorites are often expensive (-250, -300+), which limits profit on winning bets.
The Total (Over/Under)
The total is a bet on how many combined points both teams will score. Example:
Total: 47.5 (Both sides -110)
If the final score is 28–24 (combined 52), the over wins. If it's 17–13 (combined 30), the under wins. The half-point (47.5) prevents a push.
Key Numbers in the NFL
NFL games cluster around certain scoring margins due to how touchdowns (7 pts) and field goals (3 pts) work. The most important key numbers:
- 3: The most common margin of victory
- 7: Second most common
- 10, 6, 14: Also common
Spreads near these numbers (-3, -7, -7.5, +2.5) have extra value because small differences in the line can be the difference between a win and a push.
A Full Example
Chiefs -7 (-110) / Raiders +7 (-110)
Moneyline: Chiefs -280 / Raiders +230
Total: 44.5 o/u (-110/-110)
- Bet $110 on Chiefs -7 → win $100 if Chiefs win by 8+ points
- Bet $100 on Raiders +230 → win $230 if Raiders win outright
- Bet $110 on Over 44.5 → win $100 if combined score is 45+
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Always calculate implied probability before betting:
| Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| -110 | 52.4% |
| -150 | 60.0% |
| +130 | 43.5% |
| +200 | 33.3% |
If you think the Chiefs have a 60% chance of covering -7 and the line implies 52.4%, that's a value bet.
Next Steps
Now that you can read the odds, the next step is learning how to find value. Check out our guide on Understanding Implied Probability and our Parlay Calculator to start calculating payouts.