Point Spread

The point spread (or just "the spread") is a number set by oddsmakers to even out a game between two unequal teams. The favorite must win by more than the spread. The underdog must lose by less than the spread, or win outright.

Spreads turn a lopsided game into something close to a coin flip. That is why spread betting is the most popular way to bet American football and basketball. (In the UK, "spread betting" can also mean a type of financial trading, which is a different thing.)

How the Spread Works

If the Chiefs are -6.5 against the Raiders (+6.5):

With a whole number like -7, a Chiefs win by exactly 7 is a push: no winner, and both sides get their stakes back.

Standard Spread Odds

Most spread bets are priced at -110 on both sides, meaning you bet $110 to win $100. That extra $10 is how the sportsbook builds in its commission (the vig or juice). To break even at -110, you need to win 52.4% of your bets.

• -105: breakeven 51.2%
• -110: breakeven 52.4%
• -115: breakeven 53.5%
• -120: breakeven 54.5%

Books also move the price instead of the number. Chiefs -6.5 (-120) means the line is the same, but you pay more to bet it.

Key Numbers in the NFL

Because football scoring comes in 3s and 7s, some margins happen far more often than others. Roughly 15% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points, and about 9% by exactly 7. Other common margins include 10, 6, 4, and 14.

That is why the half-point around 3 and 7 matters so much. Getting +3.5 instead of +3, or -2.5 instead of -3, can be the difference between a win and a push (or a push and a loss) in a lot of games.

How Spreads Are Set and Why They Move

Oddsmakers start with a power rating for each team, adjust for home field, injuries, rest, and weather, and post an opening line. From there, the line moves based on betting action. Large bets from respected bettors move it the most. A line moving from -6.5 to -7.5 means the book wants to attract more money on the underdog.

If you bet early and the line moves your way, you got a better number than the market's final price. That is called closing line value, and it is one of the best signs of a good bettor.

Alternate Spreads and Buying Points

Most books offer alternate spreads at different prices. You might take the Chiefs -3.5 at +140 instead of -6.5 at -110, or -10.5 at +200. You can also "buy" half-points on the main line for extra juice, which is mostly worth it when it moves you onto or off 3 or 7.

Spreads in Other Sports

• NBA and college basketball: spreads are standard, often 1 to 15 points, with fewer key numbers.
• College football: spreads can be very large (30+ points) between mismatched teams.
• MLB: the run line, almost always ±1.5 runs.
• NHL: the puck line, almost always ±1.5 goals.

Common Spread Betting Mistakes

• Treating a win as a cover. A favorite can win the game and still lose your bet.
• Ignoring key numbers and paying the same attention to -6.5 and -7 as to -4.5 and -5.
• Betting late into a moved line instead of shopping for the best number across books.

For a full walkthrough, read our Point Spread Betting Guide.

Examples

• Eagles -6.5: They must win by 7+ points. Cowboys +6.5: They can lose by up to 6 or win outright.
• Lakers -4 vs. Celtics +4: A Lakers win by exactly 4 is a push.

Related Terms

Frequently Asked Questions