Consensus
The percentage of public bettors wagering on each side of a game.
Consensus betting percentages show how the general public is splitting their bets between sides. If 65% of bets are on the Cowboys, that's the consensus. Many data providers publish this information, though it typically reflects ticket counts (number of bets), not dollar amounts wagered.
Tickets vs. Money
Ticket percentage and money percentage often differ significantly. Sharp bettors place fewer but larger bets, meaning they can represent 30% of money even if only 10% of tickets. Pay attention to money percentages when they diverge from ticket percentages.
Fading the Public
Some bettors use consensus data to fade (bet against) heavy public sides, theorizing that books shade lines against public teams and that going against consensus finds value. Research shows mixed results for this strategy, but extreme public sides (80%+) are sometimes worth noting.
Key Takeaways
- Consensus = the public betting split on each side.
- Ticket % and money % can diverge significantly due to sharp bettors.
- Fading extreme public sides is a popular but imperfect strategy.
Examples
- 80% of bets on the Cowboys means heavy public consensus on Dallas.
- 60% of tickets on Team A but only 40% of money. Sharp action on Team B.
Related Terms
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A professional or highly sophisticated bettor who consistently makes profitable wagers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it profitable to bet against the consensus?
Sometimes, mostly when the public is extremely one-sided on a big game. On its own, fading the consensus is a thin edge at best.
What is the difference between ticket % and money %?
Ticket percentage counts bets. Money percentage counts dollars. When a side has few tickets but a big share of the money, larger and often sharper bettors are on it.